Posts Tagged ‘Crystal Ball’

Looking Into My 2014 Crystal Ball

by Alan Caruba on Sunday, December 29th, 2013

Pundits are expected to make predictions for the year ahead and far be it for me to avoid what, generally speaking, depends on who is making them. Major trends are already in place and easy to predict as they proceed, but it is always unknown events that upend predictions. Mother Nature and perpetrators of evil can always be counted upon to provide them.

Since the Earth has been in a seventeen-year cooling cycle, I can safely predict there will be no “global warming” in 2014 and, given the other science-based factors, the likelihood is that 2014 will experience more colder weather and may even be an earlier predictor of a mini-ice age much the same as the one that occurred from 1300 to 1850.

As mentioned, it is the unpredictable events that will affect 2014. The good news is that the U.S. has seen far fewer hurricanes, tornadoes, and forest fires in recent years. The global cooling trend, however, is likely to cause more and larger blizzards.

“Climate change”? This is now the basis of all the lies we shall hear from the President to justify his five-year delay of the Keystone oil pipeline, his continued war on coal—affordable electricity—and other Environmental Protection Agency efforts to control our lives while denying the creation of the thousands of jobs the pipeline and other energy-related development would provide. Environmentalism is the enemy of the technologies that have transformed and enhanced our lives.

The November mid-term elections hold the promise of ridding Congress of some of the Democrats who unanimously voted for Obamacare in 2009. It will also replace those Republicans-in-name-only, RINOs, who have joined Democrats in voting for legislation that advanced the socialism that is strangling the nation by expanding the federal government. I predict the ranks of “independent” voters will increase in 2014.

The erosion of the Democratic Party base will continue as Obamacare afflicts millions of Americans who will lose their healthcare insurance plans, be deprived of using their personal physician, and see their costs increase. It is the essence of communism, providing the government with control over one’s life and, in too many cases, causing many to die for the lack of plans they previously had or the costs of those they are required to purchase. Those leaving the party will include women and the younger generation leaving college to discover there aren’t any jobs to help them cope with the debt they incurred to attend. Hispanics, too, show signs of leaving.

It is hard to predict what will occur within the Republican Party whose leadership has engaged in denunciations of the Tea Party movement. However, when the Tea Party movement elects more committed conservative GOP candidates, it will save the nation and the party. Suffice to say that Obamacare will be the gift that keeps on giving in 2014. It will, in time, be repealed.

Obama’s failed foreign policy will ensure that former allies will cease to trust the U.S. to support their need to deal with the rising threat of Islamic jihad in the Middle East and Africa. Obama has lost Egypt and Saudi Arabia as long-time allies. Israel is in a particularly perilous situation and the outcome of the Syrian civil war does not bode well for it or its neighbor Jordan.

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Gazing into my Islamist Crystal Ball

by Alan Caruba on Thursday, April 18th, 2013

This is article 963 of 1260 in the topic International
It turns out that the device that the Boston marathon bomber used was described and its use was recommended in an al Qaeda publication, “Inspire.”
There must be a million words a day written, printed, broadcast, and on the Internet about Islam, Islamists, jihadists, Arabs, and others of that persuasion. I do not call it a religion anymore because I have concluded it is essentially a cult around the “prophet” Mohammed and one divided into Shiites and Sunnis who have been in conflict with one another ever since shortly after his death, based on the claims made by his relatives of his to be the caliph. This has been going on from just prior to Mohammed’s death in 632 A.D.
Much, if not all, of the world’s current problems with Islam stem from its core belief that a worldwide caliphate must be established despite the billions of people who are not Muslim and have no wish to be. Americans—and I suspect most non-Muslims—have a lot of problems trying to understand Islam which, ironically, brands itself as a “religion of peace” at the same time the headlines pour forth about the latest Islamist inspired atrocity.
Islam is now best known for suicide-homicide bombings, 9/11, attacks on Christians throughout the Middle East, Africa, and elsewhere, and, of course, the general mayhem seen these days in Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, et cetera.
Setting aside the fact that not all Muslims are bloodthirsty maniacs and many are as secular as they dare to be in Muslim nations, the deeds of a dedicated group of fanatics are sufficient to put the majority in fear of their own lives as well as spell trouble for everyone else.
As always, my crystal ball is cloudy when it comes to discerning events in the Middle East and Africa where the trouble is most manifest. It would appear that the vast resources of our defense and intelligence community are unable to determine who in the Syrian insurrection are the alleged good guys are and who are al Qaeda. I am inclined to think they are all bad guys, whether it is Bashar Assad whose Alawite tribe is fighting to retain control of Syria or those who want to replace them. The current toll is said to exceed seventy thousand.
It all comes down to what tribe and/or sect to which you belong in the Middle East. The other primary way to understand the region and the Islamic Maghreb of northern Africa is the fact that only dictators and monarchs rule the nations there. If something passing for a democratic republic exists as in Iraq or Egypt, the elected head man almost always displays an eagerness to lock up any political opposition or kill them.
At the very least, Saddam Hussein made no secret that he was a pathological maniac capable of atrocities. It was the source of his power. If he had been content to just take the money from Iraq’s oil fields he would be around today, but he engaged in an eight-year-long war with Iran and then invaded Kuwait, thereby letting every other Gulf nation know they were on his shopping list. In retrospect, the U.S. had little choice than to invade, not once, but twice to rid the region of Saddam.

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Three Gs In Unlucky ’13

by John Myers on Wednesday, December 26th, 2012

Three Gs In Unlucky ’13


With less than a week before the New Year, I wanted to share with you three pitfalls we face in 2013.

But first let me brag: I am batting 1,000 as a prognosticator regarding the end of the world.

Two years ago this week, I wrote What Would You Resolve To Do If The World Were To End In 2012?.

In it, I said: “I don’t give a whole lot of weight to the Mayans and their calendar, even if they did build a great empire. If they really had a crystal ball you would think they would have been forewarned that the Spaniards were bringing smallpox to the Yucatán in the 16th Century and they wouldn’t have let themselves be enslaved to relatively few soldiers wearing funny hats and riding strange animals.”

I felt the odds were on my side since people have been predicting the end of the world long before Michel de Nostradamus started writing his prophecies in 1550. Besides, if I was wrong and the world had ended last week, who would be left to give me a hard time? It was a good bet.

As for my three predictions regarding what is going to happen in 2013, I think they are almost as assured.

No. 1: Gridlock

The Nation seems as divided today as it was during the Vietnam War.

This was hit upon two weeks ago by retiring Senator Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.), who used his final Senate floor speech to urge Congress to put partisan rancor aside to break Washington’s gridlock.

“It requires reaching across the aisle and finding partners from the opposite party,” said the Democrat-turned-independent, who was Al Gore’s running mate in 2000. “That is what is desperately needed in Washington now.”

After 24 years in the Senate, Lieberman said he wished Washington could erase gridlock because it stands as “the greatest obstacle” to finding compromises to the Nation’s problems.

Lieberman might has well have said that he wishes there really were a Santa Claus and an Easter Bunny.

Just ask the editors of Newsday who ran an opinion piece last month titled “How Barack Obama benefits from gridlock in Washington,” which stated:” Every lobbyist in Washington knows that whoever can advocate that the government do nothing or defer a matter until later has the advantage.”

The fight in Washington next year will be about money. It is a war of attrition, much as World War I was. Neither sides of the aisle are going to do anything other than hang on until a real transformative President is elected (hopefully from the GOP). That means there will be scant compromise by the people we have elected who are supposed to oversee what is best for the Nation and not what is best for them.

No. 2: Greed

The investment scams being orchestrated by Wall Street institutions, especially investment banks, are of the magnitude of which the robber baron industrialists of a century ago could not have dreamed.

Washington is so afraid to let the other shoe drop in the ongoing recession that they have given big banks carte blanche permission for them to continue their reckless lending and investment practices regardless of the long-term consequences to the Nation.

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Pelosi Says SCOTUS Will Uphold Obamacare Because ‘I Know the Constitution’

by Doug Powers on Friday, June 1st, 2012

This is article 296 of 699 in the topic Healthcare

nullWe might laugh, but in fairness to Stretch, people don’t usually accuse her of not knowing the Constitution — they accuse her of wiping her a$$ with it.

From CNS News:

At a Capitol Hill press conference on Thursday, a reporter asked Pelosi, “Madame Leader, the Supreme Court is getting ready to rule in the next month or so on the health care bill, and you’ve expressed pretty high confidence – I think you said 6-3 – but I’m just wondering if Democrats and the Democratic leadership have had any discussions or meetings to plan for any sort of contingency plan given the possibility that the court could strike any provisions from the law or the whole law, I’m wondering if Democrats are having any meetings to discuss contingency plans?”

Pelosi, in reference to how the nine-judge court will rule, said, “6-3. That’s it. 6-3.”

She was then asked why she was so confident about her prediction, “Do you have a crystal ball or what is your confidence — you wrote the bill but why do you have this confidence?”

Pelosi said: “Because I know the Constitution. This bill is ironclad. It is ironclad.

Ironclad… like one of Nancy’s stock tips.

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New Rallying Cry for Unemployed: Will Riot for Jobs!

by John Lillpop on Friday, September 16th, 2011

This is article 52 of 116 in the topic Unemployment

Mayor Bloomberg has looked into his crystal ball and he sees deep trouble and dark skies for New York City.

Specifically, New York’s goofy mayor sees riots in the streets if the jobless situation does not improve.

Rather than the usual “Will work for food,” Bloomberg sees the streets cluttered with people carrying signs reading, “Will riot for jobs!”

As reported:

“Mayor Bloomberg warned Friday there would be riots in the streets if Washington doesn’t get serious about generating jobs.

“We have a lot of kids graduating college, can’t find jobs,” Bloomberg said on his weekly WOR radio show.

“That’s what happened in Cairo. That’s what happened in Madrid. You don’t want those kinds of riots here.”

In Cairo, angry Egyptians took out their frustrations by toppling presidential strongman Hosni Mubarak – and more recently attacking the Israeli embassy.

As for Madrid, the most recent street protests were sparked by widespread unhappiness that the Spanish government was spending millions on the visit of Pope Benedict instead of dealing with widespread unemployment.

Bloomberg’s unusually alarmist pronouncement came as President Obama has been pressuring reluctant Republicans to pass his proposed job creation plan.

“The damage to a generation that can’t find jobs will go on for many, many years,” the normally-measured mayor said.

Bloomberg gave Obama kudos for coming up with a jobs plan.”

Kudos to Obama for a jobs plan?

Remember, Obama also spent nearly one trillion dollars on a stimulus that was supposed to create or save millions of jobs. That includes $538 million dollars wasted on Solyndra!

Does Bloomberg really believe that Obama’s latest scheme will be any better?

Based on what?

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Caruba’s Crystal Ball: 2012 Election Predictions

by Alan Caruba on Monday, July 18th, 2011

It is time my friends to take my crystal ball out of its velvet-lined box, dust it off, and prognosticate. I have gazed deeply into its refracted light regarding the November 2012 elections and the Republican candidates. Here is what it tells me.

Texas Governor Rick Perry will be an August entry into the field of candidates and just blow everyone else out of the race. He has a hell of a track record in the Lone Star state where he became the first governor since WWII to reduce spending using a line item veto to scrub $3 billion from the budget. He has done many other things that conservatives just love and independent voters, shell-shot from Obama’s crazed assault on America, will support. He has never lost an election!

Gov. Mitt Romney is Mr. Flippity-Floppity; a political disaster waiting to happen. His poll rankings are due mostly to name recognition. John McCain beat him out for the nomination last time around and these two RINOs should taking up quilting or some hobby other than politics.

Rep. Michelle Bachman is the Tea Party flavor of the month, but will generate little fervor beyond the patriot legions. My crystal ball says America is not ready for a woman president and that includes Sarah Palin who, in case no one has noticed, is not running. If that makes me sexist, then so be it.

Gov. Tim Pawlenty is toast after the Iowa primaries which will tilt heavily toward Ms. Bachman because she was born there and because Iowans love mavericks. Pawlenty is just too “nice” at a time when voters want a candidate who exudes a more aggressive persona.

Rep. Rick Santorum or as we say around here, “Rick Who?” has no traction at all. He will be gone by Iowa and New Hampshire.

Herman Cain has personality to spare, but after four years of Obama, many voters are going to be wary of voting another Black American into the Oval Office. (I would vote for Rep. Allen West in a heartbeat.) Meanwhile, Cain will be offered the job of Secretary of Commerce in the Perry administration.

Rep. Ron Paul will be remembered as the Harold Stassen of this generation of voters. The original Stassen ran for the GOP nomination for president eight (8) times between 1946 and 1992! A Libertarian, Paul has a few good ideas and a lot of bad ones. On television he comes across as everyone’s angry grandpa.

Newt Gingrich, former Speaker of the House, was deserted by virtually his entire campaign staff weeks ago. He needs to officially retire from the race and go back to doing commentary for Fox News. Even Mike Huckabee had the good sense to stay put there.

Lastly, there’s some guy called Jon Huntsman who nobody has ever heard of except the immediate members of his family. He was Obama’s ambassador to China. No need to say anything more about Jon.

For those who actually think Obama will be reelected, relax. He’s already political road kill even though he will get the Democrat nomination.

Obama’s lost his mojo. Lots of people have someone like him in their family and, as often as not, they’re a crack addict, a mental case.

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The Debt Ceiling Fiction

by Alan Caruba on Tuesday, July 5th, 2011

This is article 209 of 526 in the topic Government Spending

When asked why someone said something idiotic or some group is advocating something moronic, I am apt to wearily reply that there is no defense against stupidity.

There is a defense and it works over the long run. It is called the truth.

It is interesting to watch how “the truth will out” as they say in detective novels. In our society, so in thrall to the mainstream press and media, the truth circulates swiftly through that portion of the population that first suspects something is amiss and then outward to the general population that can no longer ignore it.

That long, slow process occurred with the Watergate scandal that ultimately forced President, Richard Nixon to resign in 1974. It began with a 1972 break-in at the Democrat headquarters in Washington, D.C. and then just unraveled a little bit each day. It enshrined two young reporters from The Washington Post in journalism’s pantheon of heroes and probably caused a goodly number of college kids to change their major to journalism.

The Founding Fathers who fashioned a federal government after the Articles of Confederacy proved a failure for the new nation not only knew history, they were an unusually brilliant collection of scholars; even if self-taught as was common at the time. What they knew well was human nature and they knew that men were inclined to criminality and stupidity. Thus, the Constitution deliberately divides the powers vested in the legislature, the judiciary, and the executive. It also deliberately slows down the legislative process.

The system largely worked until eleven southern slave states became so incensed over trade laws passed by northern states and the growing abolition movement that they decided to secede from the Union in 1860. Abraham Lincoln said no. Then he sent a huge army to back it up.

If they had had a crystal ball, all would have known that technology would replace slave labor in a remarkably short time. If they had any sense, they would have worked out a compromise, but the stupidity factor interfered. Even the Founding Fathers “four score and seven years” earlier knew that the issue of slavery would threaten the new republic.

Big problems and big issues cannot be ignored forever.

To give you an idea how big the problem is, a CNSnews story reported that “Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner oversaw the largest increase in the national debt of any Treasury secretary in American history, presiding over a $3.7 trillion increase in debt…In fact, the debt accrued under Geithner is greater than all federal debt accrued in the first 204 years of the nation’s history.”

The United States now finds itself less than a month away from defaulting on its loans because, in just two and a half years, the current President has allowed the debt to increase to $14.2 trillion, an amount that equals the entire annual Gross Domestic Product. That’s not break even. That’s broke.

The Republicans have put forward a plan to solve the debt problem. The Democrats have not even produced a budget in more than 800 days.

That’s why this goes way beyond mere partisan politics. This is a nation that has managed, mostly due to government “entitlement” programs to bankrupt itself. The Democrats refuse to discuss modifying them in any way.

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What Would You Resolve To Do If The World Were To End In 2012?

by John Myers on Wednesday, December 29th, 2010

This is article 3 of 13 in the topic Doomsday Theories

What Would You Resolve To Do If The World Were To End In 2012?

Countdown to 21.12.2012. It is called the end of time; the end of the world, a.k.a. the end of Mayan Long Count. Whether you call it that or just the apocalypse, some say that all of us have less than two years to live. That’s when the Mayan calendar runs out.

I don’t give a whole lot of weight to the Mayans and their calendar, even if they did build a great empire. If they really had a crystal ball you would think they would have been forewarned that the Spaniards were bringing smallpox to the Yucatán in the 16th Century and they wouldn’t have let themselves be enslaved to relatively few soldiers wearing funny hats and riding strange animals.

Still, there are books out there, along with text and video on the Internet, that claim we are counting down towards destruction worse than Noah faced.

I don’t know much about the Mayans or how good they or other ancients were at prophesying the future. But after almost 30 years in the business, I know a thing or two about publishing. Frankly, doom sells. After I worked as a reporter in Calgary for a year I came to work for my dad’s newsletter in 1980. I was, as he said, a dumb college kid and ill prepared to be a contributing writer to his newsletter. So I started off reading everything that came into my office. That included almost every newsletter that was published at that time.

One of those publications was The Granville Letter, written by Joe Granville, who knew my dad. Granville had a huge following at the time. In January of 1981, he had become extremely bearish. His office made 3,000 phone calls to clients urging them to sell everything. Granville didn’t make this prediction because he foresaw the Federal Reserve increasing interest rates or a sneak attack by some foreign power. Instead, he said the Dow Jones Industrial Average was going to collapse because California was going to be struck by an earthquake measuring 8.3 Richter in Los Angeles in May.

Here is the really interesting part. Some people actually believed his prediction. You don’t have to take my word for it, just Google, “Joe Granville earthquake.”

On the day of Granville’s dire forecast the Dow Industrials actually fell 24 points, or almost 3 percent, in what was then the heaviest volume in the history of the New York Stock Exchange. As it turned out, Granville had it dead wrong, and not just about the earthquake. Eight months following his prediction the Dow hit its final bottom and started an 18-year bull run which would take it from 777 to 11,750.

My doom and gloom research culminated 11 years ago this month when I was an editor for Mark Skousen’s newsletter, Forecasts & Strategies. I was reading what some others were predicting about Y2K and what they said would be the ensuing economic collapse. Over the years I have read much about coming calamities. I have even been accused of being a doomster myself.

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Caruba’s Crystal Ball: The 2012 GOP Presidential Nominee

by Alan Caruba on Tuesday, November 9th, 2010

This is article 153 of 1298 in the topic 2012 Elections

If the Republican Party nominates a RINO (Republican in Name Only) like John McCain in 2012 it will lose and, assuming the Democratic Party clings to its suicide pact with Barack Hussein Obama, he will win.

It is doubtful that Obama will not be re-nominated for the 2012 race. As the Wall Street Journal’s Kimberley A. Strassel pointed out, “History doesn’t inspire optimism. Over the past 100 years, every time a president two years into his first term lost Congress, he went on to be re-elected: Truman in ’48, Eisenhower in ’56, Clinton in ’96.”

What we do know is that independent voters will decide whoever will be elected in 2012. There were no Tea Parties in those earlier elections and a lot depends on what the GOP does over the course of the next two years. While they control the House, they have limited options beyond a declared intention to repeal Obamacare, cut government spending, etc. Twenty-three very nervous Democrat Senators up for election in 2012 may prove cooperative. Obama will not.

So, let the speculation begin! Rasmussen Reports polled likely primary voters to find out who Republicans favored at this early point and released a November 4 announcement that three ex-governors, Mitt Romney of Massachusetts, Mike Huckabee of Arkansas, and Sarah Palin were in a dead heat.

My crystal ball says that none of these politicians will be on the ticket.

Romney is a RINO who brought an early version of Obamacare to Massachusetts when he was governor. Huckabee plays well on television and should stay there. Palin has a cult following, but is a political anomaly who could be defeated in a general election.

Many Republican women candidates did not fare well in the midterms. None of these early potential candidates should be considered serious contenders for the presidency at a time when many Republicans are looking for new faces, not failed earlier contenders.

Others to ignore in this category include Governors Bobby Jindal and Haley Barbour, as well as Tim Pawlenty. All are good governors, but none have the star power it takes to be president.

There are Republicans who are already making appearances in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and other early primary states and, of these, Mike Pence, an Indiana Representative who won a recent presidential straw vote at a “values summit” in September looks like a viable contender. There’s some buzz for John Thune, a handsome Senator from South Dakota, but Thune has not geared up for the campaign and few voters know anything about him.

Marco Rubio, the newly elected Senator from Florida, is a bright young, articulate face of the new GOP, but he needs to get a full term under his belt before running. He needs his name on some piece of legislation that gains attention. He is, for sure, a rising star.

Newt Gingrich may want to be president, but he is likely to conclude that being the party’s “elder statesman” is the role in which he is most comfortable. I do not think he will run for the nomination.

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