Posts Tagged ‘Crystal Ball’
With less than a week before the New Year, I wanted to share with you three pitfalls we face in 2013.
But first let me brag: I am batting 1,000 as a prognosticator regarding the end of the world.
Two years ago this week, I wrote What Would You Resolve To Do If The World Were To End In 2012?.
In it, I said: “I don’t give a whole lot of weight to the Mayans and their calendar, even if they did build a great empire. If they really had a crystal ball you would think they would have been forewarned that the Spaniards were bringing smallpox to the Yucatán in the 16th Century and they wouldn’t have let themselves be enslaved to relatively few soldiers wearing funny hats and riding strange animals.”
I felt the odds were on my side since people have been predicting the end of the world long before Michel de Nostradamus started writing his prophecies in 1550. Besides, if I was wrong and the world had ended last week, who would be left to give me a hard time? It was a good bet.
As for my three predictions regarding what is going to happen in 2013, I think they are almost as assured.
No. 1: Gridlock
The Nation seems as divided today as it was during the Vietnam War.
This was hit upon two weeks ago by retiring Senator Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.), who used his final Senate floor speech to urge Congress to put partisan rancor aside to break Washington’s gridlock.
“It requires reaching across the aisle and finding partners from the opposite party,” said the Democrat-turned-independent, who was Al Gore’s running mate in 2000. “That is what is desperately needed in Washington now.”
After 24 years in the Senate, Lieberman said he wished Washington could erase gridlock because it stands as “the greatest obstacle” to finding compromises to the Nation’s problems.
Lieberman might has well have said that he wishes there really were a Santa Claus and an Easter Bunny.
Just ask the editors of Newsday who ran an opinion piece last month titled “How Barack Obama benefits from gridlock in Washington,” which stated:” Every lobbyist in Washington knows that whoever can advocate that the government do nothing or defer a matter until later has the advantage.”
The fight in Washington next year will be about money. It is a war of attrition, much as World War I was. Neither sides of the aisle are going to do anything other than hang on until a real transformative President is elected (hopefully from the GOP). That means there will be scant compromise by the people we have elected who are supposed to oversee what is best for the Nation and not what is best for them.
No. 2: Greed
The investment scams being orchestrated by Wall Street institutions, especially investment banks, are of the magnitude of which the robber baron industrialists of a century ago could not have dreamed.
Washington is so afraid to let the other shoe drop in the ongoing recession that they have given big banks carte blanche permission for them to continue their reckless lending and investment practices regardless of the long-term consequences to the Nation.
We might laugh, but in fairness to Stretch, people don’t usually accuse her of not knowing the Constitution — they accuse her of wiping her a$$ with it.
From CNS News:
At a Capitol Hill press conference on Thursday, a reporter asked Pelosi, “Madame Leader, the Supreme Court is getting ready to rule in the next month or so on the health care bill, and you’ve expressed pretty high confidence – I think you said 6-3 – but I’m just wondering if Democrats and the Democratic leadership have had any discussions or meetings to plan for any sort of contingency plan given the possibility that the court could strike any provisions from the law or the whole law, I’m wondering if Democrats are having any meetings to discuss contingency plans?”
Pelosi, in reference to how the nine-judge court will rule, said, “6-3. That’s it. 6-3.”
She was then asked why she was so confident about her prediction, “Do you have a crystal ball or what is your confidence — you wrote the bill but why do you have this confidence?”
Pelosi said: “Because I know the Constitution. This bill is ironclad. It is ironclad.
Ironclad… like one of Nancy’s stock tips.
Mayor Bloomberg has looked into his crystal ball and he sees deep trouble and dark skies for New York City.
Specifically, New York’s goofy mayor sees riots in the streets if the jobless situation does not improve.
Rather than the usual “Will work for food,” Bloomberg sees the streets cluttered with people carrying signs reading, “Will riot for jobs!”
“Mayor Bloomberg warned Friday there would be riots in the streets if Washington doesn’t get serious about generating jobs.
“We have a lot of kids graduating college, can’t find jobs,” Bloomberg said on his weekly WOR radio show.
“That’s what happened in Cairo. That’s what happened in Madrid. You don’t want those kinds of riots here.”
In Cairo, angry Egyptians took out their frustrations by toppling presidential strongman Hosni Mubarak – and more recently attacking the Israeli embassy.
As for Madrid, the most recent street protests were sparked by widespread unhappiness that the Spanish government was spending millions on the visit of Pope Benedict instead of dealing with widespread unemployment.
Bloomberg’s unusually alarmist pronouncement came as President Obama has been pressuring reluctant Republicans to pass his proposed job creation plan.
“The damage to a generation that can’t find jobs will go on for many, many years,” the normally-measured mayor said.
Bloomberg gave Obama kudos for coming up with a jobs plan.”
Kudos to Obama for a jobs plan?
Remember, Obama also spent nearly one trillion dollars on a stimulus that was supposed to create or save millions of jobs. That includes $538 million dollars wasted on Solyndra!
Does Bloomberg really believe that Obama’s latest scheme will be any better?
Based on what?
It is time my friends to take my crystal ball out of its velvet-lined box, dust it off, and prognosticate. I have gazed deeply into its refracted light regarding the November 2012 elections and the Republican candidates. Here is what it tells me.
Texas Governor Rick Perry will be an August entry into the field of candidates and just blow everyone else out of the race. He has a hell of a track record in the Lone Star state where he became the first governor since WWII to reduce spending using a line item veto to scrub $3 billion from the budget. He has done many other things that conservatives just love and independent voters, shell-shot from Obama’s crazed assault on America, will support. He has never lost an election!
Gov. Mitt Romney is Mr. Flippity-Floppity; a political disaster waiting to happen. His poll rankings are due mostly to name recognition. John McCain beat him out for the nomination last time around and these two RINOs should taking up quilting or some hobby other than politics.
Rep. Michelle Bachman is the Tea Party flavor of the month, but will generate little fervor beyond the patriot legions. My crystal ball says America is not ready for a woman president and that includes Sarah Palin who, in case no one has noticed, is not running. If that makes me sexist, then so be it.
Gov. Tim Pawlenty is toast after the Iowa primaries which will tilt heavily toward Ms. Bachman because she was born there and because Iowans love mavericks. Pawlenty is just too “nice” at a time when voters want a candidate who exudes a more aggressive persona.
Rep. Rick Santorum or as we say around here, “Rick Who?” has no traction at all. He will be gone by Iowa and New Hampshire.
Herman Cain has personality to spare, but after four years of Obama, many voters are going to be wary of voting another Black American into the Oval Office. (I would vote for Rep. Allen West in a heartbeat.) Meanwhile, Cain will be offered the job of Secretary of Commerce in the Perry administration.
Rep. Ron Paul will be remembered as the Harold Stassen of this generation of voters. The original Stassen ran for the GOP nomination for president eight (8) times between 1946 and 1992! A Libertarian, Paul has a few good ideas and a lot of bad ones. On television he comes across as everyone’s angry grandpa.
Newt Gingrich, former Speaker of the House, was deserted by virtually his entire campaign staff weeks ago. He needs to officially retire from the race and go back to doing commentary for Fox News. Even Mike Huckabee had the good sense to stay put there.
Lastly, there’s some guy called Jon Huntsman who nobody has ever heard of except the immediate members of his family. He was Obama’s ambassador to China. No need to say anything more about Jon.
For those who actually think Obama will be reelected, relax. He’s already political road kill even though he will get the Democrat nomination.
Obama’s lost his mojo. Lots of people have someone like him in their family and, as often as not, they’re a crack addict, a mental case.
When asked why someone said something idiotic or some group is advocating something moronic, I am apt to wearily reply that there is no defense against stupidity.
There is a defense and it works over the long run. It is called the truth.
It is interesting to watch how “the truth will out” as they say in detective novels. In our society, so in thrall to the mainstream press and media, the truth circulates swiftly through that portion of the population that first suspects something is amiss and then outward to the general population that can no longer ignore it.
That long, slow process occurred with the Watergate scandal that ultimately forced President, Richard Nixon to resign in 1974. It began with a 1972 break-in at the Democrat headquarters in Washington, D.C. and then just unraveled a little bit each day. It enshrined two young reporters from The Washington Post in journalism’s pantheon of heroes and probably caused a goodly number of college kids to change their major to journalism.
The Founding Fathers who fashioned a federal government after the Articles of Confederacy proved a failure for the new nation not only knew history, they were an unusually brilliant collection of scholars; even if self-taught as was common at the time. What they knew well was human nature and they knew that men were inclined to criminality and stupidity. Thus, the Constitution deliberately divides the powers vested in the legislature, the judiciary, and the executive. It also deliberately slows down the legislative process.
The system largely worked until eleven southern slave states became so incensed over trade laws passed by northern states and the growing abolition movement that they decided to secede from the Union in 1860. Abraham Lincoln said no. Then he sent a huge army to back it up.
If they had had a crystal ball, all would have known that technology would replace slave labor in a remarkably short time. If they had any sense, they would have worked out a compromise, but the stupidity factor interfered. Even the Founding Fathers “four score and seven years” earlier knew that the issue of slavery would threaten the new republic.
Big problems and big issues cannot be ignored forever.
To give you an idea how big the problem is, a CNSnews story reported that “Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner oversaw the largest increase in the national debt of any Treasury secretary in American history, presiding over a $3.7 trillion increase in debt…In fact, the debt accrued under Geithner is greater than all federal debt accrued in the first 204 years of the nation’s history.”
The United States now finds itself less than a month away from defaulting on its loans because, in just two and a half years, the current President has allowed the debt to increase to $14.2 trillion, an amount that equals the entire annual Gross Domestic Product. That’s not break even. That’s broke.
The Republicans have put forward a plan to solve the debt problem. The Democrats have not even produced a budget in more than 800 days.
That’s why this goes way beyond mere partisan politics. This is a nation that has managed, mostly due to government “entitlement” programs to bankrupt itself. The Democrats refuse to discuss modifying them in any way.
Countdown to 21.12.2012. It is called the end of time; the end of the world, a.k.a. the end of Mayan Long Count. Whether you call it that or just the apocalypse, some say that all of us have less than two years to live. That’s when the Mayan calendar runs out.
I don’t give a whole lot of weight to the Mayans and their calendar, even if they did build a great empire. If they really had a crystal ball you would think they would have been forewarned that the Spaniards were bringing smallpox to the Yucatán in the 16th Century and they wouldn’t have let themselves be enslaved to relatively few soldiers wearing funny hats and riding strange animals.
Still, there are books out there, along with text and video on the Internet, that claim we are counting down towards destruction worse than Noah faced.
I don’t know much about the Mayans or how good they or other ancients were at prophesying the future. But after almost 30 years in the business, I know a thing or two about publishing. Frankly, doom sells. After I worked as a reporter in Calgary for a year I came to work for my dad’s newsletter in 1980. I was, as he said, a dumb college kid and ill prepared to be a contributing writer to his newsletter. So I started off reading everything that came into my office. That included almost every newsletter that was published at that time.
One of those publications was The Granville Letter, written by Joe Granville, who knew my dad. Granville had a huge following at the time. In January of 1981, he had become extremely bearish. His office made 3,000 phone calls to clients urging them to sell everything. Granville didn’t make this prediction because he foresaw the Federal Reserve increasing interest rates or a sneak attack by some foreign power. Instead, he said the Dow Jones Industrial Average was going to collapse because California was going to be struck by an earthquake measuring 8.3 Richter in Los Angeles in May.
Here is the really interesting part. Some people actually believed his prediction. You don’t have to take my word for it, just Google, “Joe Granville earthquake.”
On the day of Granville’s dire forecast the Dow Industrials actually fell 24 points, or almost 3 percent, in what was then the heaviest volume in the history of the New York Stock Exchange. As it turned out, Granville had it dead wrong, and not just about the earthquake. Eight months following his prediction the Dow hit its final bottom and started an 18-year bull run which would take it from 777 to 11,750.
My doom and gloom research culminated 11 years ago this month when I was an editor for Mark Skousen’s newsletter, Forecasts & Strategies. I was reading what some others were predicting about Y2K and what they said would be the ensuing economic collapse. Over the years I have read much about coming calamities. I have even been accused of being a doomster myself.
If the Republican Party nominates a RINO (Republican in Name Only) like John McCain in 2012 it will lose and, assuming the Democratic Party clings to its suicide pact with Barack Hussein Obama, he will win.
What we do know is that independent voters will decide whoever will be elected in 2012. There were no Tea Parties in those earlier elections and a lot depends on what the GOP does over the course of the next two years. While they control the House, they have limited options beyond a declared intention to repeal Obamacare, cut government spending, etc. Twenty-three very nervous Democrat Senators up for election in 2012 may prove cooperative. Obama will not.
So, let the speculation begin! Rasmussen Reports polled likely primary voters to find out who Republicans favored at this early point and released a November 4 announcement that three ex-governors, Mitt Romney of Massachusetts, Mike Huckabee of Arkansas, and Sarah Palin were in a dead heat.
My crystal ball says that none of these politicians will be on the ticket.
Romney is a RINO who brought an early version of Obamacare to Massachusetts when he was governor. Huckabee plays well on television and should stay there. Palin has a cult following, but is a political anomaly who could be defeated in a general election.
Many Republican women candidates did not fare well in the midterms. None of these early potential candidates should be considered serious contenders for the presidency at a time when many Republicans are looking for new faces, not failed earlier contenders.
Others to ignore in this category include Governors Bobby Jindal and Haley Barbour, as well as Tim Pawlenty. All are good governors, but none have the star power it takes to be president.
There are Republicans who are already making appearances in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and other early primary states and, of these, Mike Pence, an Indiana Representative who won a recent presidential straw vote at a “values summit” in September looks like a viable contender. There’s some buzz for John Thune, a handsome Senator from South Dakota, but Thune has not geared up for the campaign and few voters know anything about him.
Marco Rubio, the newly elected Senator from Florida, is a bright young, articulate face of the new GOP, but he needs to get a full term under his belt before running. He needs his name on some piece of legislation that gains attention. He is, for sure, a rising star.
Newt Gingrich may want to be president, but he is likely to conclude that being the party’s “elder statesman” is the role in which he is most comfortable. I do not think he will run for the nomination.